European Pro League Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bushido Wildcats#82 in the world · loss 0:1series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Nexus#159 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Bushido Wildcats pick
71%40%
Bushido Wildcats · 47 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +31%Nexus · 6 maps
MirageNexus ban
55%63%
Bushido Wildcats · 34 mapsedge Nexus +8%Nexus · 4 maps
NukeNexus ban
50%40%
Bushido Wildcats · 30 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +10%Nexus · 1 map
CacheBushido Wildcats ban
59%45%
Bushido Wildcats · 18 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +14%Nexus · 7 maps
AnubisNexus pick
50%54%
Bushido Wildcats · 12 mapsnearly even -4%Nexus · 9 maps
InfernoBushido Wildcats ban
44%38%
Bushido Wildcats · 12 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +6%Nexus · 4 maps
Defaultpossible decider
80%67%
Bushido Wildcats · 6 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +13%Nexus · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBushido Wildcats remove Inferno
2. BanNexus remove Nuke
3. PickBushido Wildcats take Dust2
4. PickNexus take Anubis
5. BanNexus remove Mirage
6. BanBushido Wildcats remove Cache
DeciderDefault (80% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
Bushido Wildcats 67%Nexus 33%
The model gave 67% on Bushido Wildcats — the map was taken by Nexus.
Model check result
Model favoriteBushido Wildcats · 78%
Series resultNexus 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1