CCT 2026 Europe Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Butterfly#127 in the world · win 2:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
benched gods#162 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Butterfly pick
50%50%
Butterfly · 0 mapsnearly even +0%benched gods · 4 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%57%
Butterfly · 0 mapsedge benched gods +7%benched gods · 3 maps
AnubisButterfly ban
50%57%
Butterfly · 0 mapsedge benched gods +7%benched gods · 3 maps
DefaultButterfly ban
50%67%
Butterfly · 0 mapsedge benched gods +17%benched gods · 2 maps
Cachebenched gods pick
50%60%
Butterfly · 0 mapsedge benched gods +10%benched gods · 1 map
Infernobenched gods ban
50%60%
Butterfly · 0 mapsedge benched gods +10%benched gods · 1 map
Nukebenched gods ban
50%60%
Butterfly · 0 mapsedge benched gods +10%benched gods · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanButterfly remove Default
2. Banbenched gods remove Nuke
3. PickButterfly take Dust2
4. Pickbenched gods take Cache
5. Banbenched gods remove Inferno
6. BanButterfly remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:5
Butterfly 46%benched gods 54%
The model gave 54% on benched gods — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Cacheprediction missed13:10
Butterfly 37%benched gods 63%
The model gave 63% on benched gods — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Model check result
Model favoritebenched gods · 56%
Series resultButterfly 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2