NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
Chicken Coop#183 in the world · loss 10:13series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 10:13
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoAxial ban
54%50%
Chicken Coop · 9 mapsnearly even +4%Axial · 0 maps
Dust2possible decider
55%50%
Chicken Coop · 7 mapsedge Chicken Coop +5%Axial · 0 maps
AncientChicken Coop ban
57%50%
Chicken Coop · 3 mapsedge Chicken Coop +7%Axial · 0 maps
NukeAxial ban
57%50%
Chicken Coop · 3 mapsedge Chicken Coop +7%Axial · 0 maps
MirageChicken Coop ban
40%40%
Chicken Coop · 1 mapnearly even +0%Axial · 1 map
OverpassAxial ban
67%50%
Chicken Coop · 2 mapsedge Chicken Coop +17%Axial · 0 maps
AnubisChicken Coop ban
40%50%
Chicken Coop · 1 mapedge Axial +10%Axial · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanChicken Coop remove Anubis
2. BanAxial remove Nuke
3. BanChicken Coop remove Mirage
4. BanAxial remove Inferno
5. BanChicken Coop remove Ancient
6. BanAxial remove Overpass
DeciderDust2 (55% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
Chicken Coop 55%Axial 45%
The model gave 55% on Chicken Coop — the map was taken by Axial.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Coop · 58%
Series resultAxial 10:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1