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StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 North America Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Chicken Coop#151 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
SportsBetExpert#69 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoSportsBetExpert pick
64%58%
Chicken Coop · 7 mapsedge Chicken Coop +6%SportsBetExpert · 8 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%57%
Chicken Coop · 4 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +7%SportsBetExpert · 3 maps
OverpassChicken Coop pick
70%40%
Chicken Coop · 6 mapsedge Chicken Coop +30%SportsBetExpert · 1 map
AncientSportsBetExpert ban
67%60%
Chicken Coop · 5 mapsedge Chicken Coop +7%SportsBetExpert · 1 map
AnubisChicken Coop ban
40%75%
Chicken Coop · 1 mapedge SportsBetExpert +35%SportsBetExpert · 4 maps
NukeSportsBetExpert ban
57%50%
Chicken Coop · 3 mapsedge Chicken Coop +7%SportsBetExpert · 2 maps
MirageChicken Coop ban
60%57%
Chicken Coop · 1 mapnearly even +3%SportsBetExpert · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanChicken Coop remove Anubis
2. BanSportsBetExpert remove Ancient
3. PickChicken Coop take Overpass
4. PickSportsBetExpert take Inferno
5. BanSportsBetExpert remove Nuke
6. BanChicken Coop remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:5
Chicken Coop 40%SportsBetExpert 60%
The model gave 60% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by Chicken Coop.
Nukeprediction missed9:13
Chicken Coop 60%SportsBetExpert 40%
The model gave 60% on Chicken Coop — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Infernoprediction missed5:13
Chicken Coop 56%SportsBetExpert 44%
The model gave 56% on Chicken Coop — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Coop · 60%
Series resultSportsBetExpert 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3