ESL Challenger League Season 51 North America Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
Chicken Coop#151 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Voca#67 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Voca pick
43%60%
Chicken Coop · 3 mapsedge Voca +17%Voca · 6 maps
OverpassChicken Coop pick
57%50%
Chicken Coop · 3 mapsedge Chicken Coop +7%Voca · 6 maps
AncientVoca ban
50%60%
Chicken Coop · 2 mapsedge Voca +10%Voca · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
50%60%
Chicken Coop · 2 mapsedge Voca +10%Voca · 1 map
InfernoVoca ban
57%50%
Chicken Coop · 3 mapsedge Chicken Coop +7%Voca · 0 maps
NukeChicken Coop ban
43%50%
Chicken Coop · 3 mapsedge Voca +7%Voca · 0 maps
MirageChicken Coop ban
50%50%
Chicken Coop · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Voca · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanChicken Coop remove Mirage
2. BanVoca remove Inferno
3. PickChicken Coop take Overpass
4. PickVoca take Dust2
5. BanVoca remove Ancient
6. BanChicken Coop remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct11:13
Chicken Coop 46%Voca 54%
The model gave 54% on Voca — the map was taken by Voca.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
Chicken Coop 31%Voca 69%
The model gave 69% on Voca — the map was taken by Voca.
Model check result
Model favoriteVoca · 69%
Series resultVoca 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2