ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Chinggis Warriors#116 in the world · win 2:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeChinggis Warriors pick
61%50%
Chinggis Warriors · 19 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +11%THE UNIT · 0 maps
AncientTHE UNIT ban
53%33%
Chinggis Warriors · 11 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +20%THE UNIT · 5 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%44%
Chinggis Warriors · 10 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +6%THE UNIT · 5 maps
InfernoTHE UNIT ban
63%50%
Chinggis Warriors · 12 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +13%THE UNIT · 0 maps
MirageTHE UNIT pick
50%50%
Chinggis Warriors · 4 mapsnearly even +0%THE UNIT · 8 maps
AnubisChinggis Warriors ban
29%50%
Chinggis Warriors · 3 mapsedge THE UNIT +21%THE UNIT · 0 maps
CacheChinggis Warriors ban
50%50%
Chinggis Warriors · 2 mapsnearly even +0%THE UNIT · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanChinggis Warriors remove Anubis
2. BanTHE UNIT remove Inferno
3. PickChinggis Warriors take Nuke
4. PickTHE UNIT take Mirage
5. BanTHE UNIT remove Ancient
6. BanChinggis Warriors remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (50% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:7
Chinggis Warriors 47%THE UNIT 53%
The model gave 53% on THE UNIT — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
Chinggis Warriors 58%THE UNIT 42%
The model gave 58% on Chinggis Warriors — the map was taken by THE UNIT.
Infernoprediction correct13:8
Chinggis Warriors 63%THE UNIT 37%
The model gave 63% on Chinggis Warriors — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Model check result
Model favoriteChinggis Warriors · 67%
Series resultChinggis Warriors 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3