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ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Chinggis Warriors#116 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Vitalem Aerem#180 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeVitalem Aerem ban
59%38%
Chinggis Warriors · 13 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +21%Vitalem Aerem · 4 maps
Dust2Vitalem Aerem pick
50%50%
Chinggis Warriors · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Vitalem Aerem · 8 maps
InfernoChinggis Warriors pick
64%44%
Chinggis Warriors · 10 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +20%Vitalem Aerem · 5 maps
AncientChinggis Warriors ban
40%50%
Chinggis Warriors · 6 mapsedge Vitalem Aerem +10%Vitalem Aerem · 8 maps
AnubisChinggis Warriors ban
29%50%
Chinggis Warriors · 3 mapsedge Vitalem Aerem +21%Vitalem Aerem · 2 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%60%
Chinggis Warriors · 4 mapsedge Vitalem Aerem +10%Vitalem Aerem · 1 map
CacheVitalem Aerem ban
50%50%
Chinggis Warriors · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Vitalem Aerem · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanChinggis Warriors remove Anubis
2. BanVitalem Aerem remove Cache
3. PickChinggis Warriors take Inferno
4. PickVitalem Aerem take Dust2
5. BanVitalem Aerem remove Nuke
6. BanChinggis Warriors remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed11:13
Chinggis Warriors 73%Vitalem Aerem 27%
The model gave 73% on Chinggis Warriors — the map was taken by Vitalem Aerem.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
Chinggis Warriors 47%Vitalem Aerem 53%
The model gave 53% on Vitalem Aerem — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Ancientprediction missed16:14
Chinggis Warriors 40%Vitalem Aerem 60%
The model gave 60% on Vitalem Aerem — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Model check result
Model favoriteChinggis Warriors · 51%
Series resultChinggis Warriors 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3