ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Club 333#229 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
DETONATE#196 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoClub 333 pick
67%39%
Club 333 · 5 mapsedge Club 333 +28%DETONATE · 14 maps
Miragepossible decider
38%30%
Club 333 · 4 mapsedge Club 333 +8%DETONATE · 6 maps
CacheDETONATE pick
40%58%
Club 333 · 1 mapedge DETONATE +18%DETONATE · 8 maps
NukeClub 333 ban
40%55%
Club 333 · 1 mapedge DETONATE +15%DETONATE · 7 maps
AncientDETONATE ban
40%44%
Club 333 · 1 mapnearly even -4%DETONATE · 5 maps
AnubisClub 333 ban
50%30%
Club 333 · 0 mapsedge Club 333 +20%DETONATE · 6 maps
Dust2DETONATE ban
44%50%
Club 333 · 5 mapsedge DETONATE +6%DETONATE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanClub 333 remove Anubis
2. BanDETONATE remove Dust2
3. PickClub 333 take Inferno
4. PickDETONATE take Cache
5. BanDETONATE remove Ancient
6. BanClub 333 remove Nuke
DeciderMirage (38% / 30%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed1:13
Club 333 78%DETONATE 22%
The model gave 78% on Club 333 — the map was taken by DETONATE.
Anubisprediction missed13:16
Club 333 67%DETONATE 33%
The model gave 67% on Club 333 — the map was taken by DETONATE.
Model check result
Model favoriteDETONATE · 63%
Series resultDETONATE 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2