NODWIN Clutch Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
CYBERSHOKE#90 in the world · win 2:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Acend#125 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAcend pick
46%67%
CYBERSHOKE · 9 mapsedge Acend +21%Acend · 8 maps
Dust2Acend ban
64%44%
CYBERSHOKE · 10 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +20%Acend · 5 maps
AncientCYBERSHOKE pick
62%44%
CYBERSHOKE · 9 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +18%Acend · 5 maps
OverpassCYBERSHOKE ban
25%43%
CYBERSHOKE · 4 mapsedge Acend +18%Acend · 3 maps
AnubisAcend ban
50%50%
CYBERSHOKE · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Acend · 0 maps
InfernoCYBERSHOKE ban
50%50%
CYBERSHOKE · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Acend · 2 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%60%
CYBERSHOKE · 0 mapsedge Acend +10%Acend · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Inferno
2. BanAcend remove Dust2
3. PickCYBERSHOKE take Ancient
4. PickAcend take Mirage
5. BanAcend remove Anubis
6. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Overpass
DeciderDefault (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction missed13:4
CYBERSHOKE 28%Acend 72%
The model gave 72% on Acend — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Dust2prediction missed13:16
CYBERSHOKE 72%Acend 28%
The model gave 72% on CYBERSHOKE — the map was taken by Acend.
Mirageprediction missed13:10
CYBERSHOKE 30%Acend 70%
The model gave 70% on Acend — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Model check result
Model favoriteAcend · 55%
Series resultCYBERSHOKE 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3