WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 5 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1win#33 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust21win pick
40%50%
Dark Moon · 1 mapedge 1win +10%1win · 2 maps
Ancient1win ban
40%60%
Dark Moon · 1 mapedge 1win +20%1win · 1 map
Inferno1win ban
50%60%
Dark Moon · 0 mapsedge 1win +10%1win · 1 map
MirageDark Moon ban
50%60%
Dark Moon · 0 mapsedge 1win +10%1win · 1 map
OverpassDark Moon pick
50%40%
Dark Moon · 0 mapsedge Dark Moon +10%1win · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDark Moon remove Mirage
2. Ban1win remove Ancient
3. PickDark Moon take Overpass
4. Pick1win take Dust2
5. Ban1win remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct5:13
Dark Moon 43%1win 57%
The model gave 57% on 1win — the map was taken by 1win.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
Dark Moon 37%1win 63%
The model gave 63% on 1win — the map was taken by 1win.
Model check result
Model favorite1win · 82%
Series result1win 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2