ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Dark Moon pick
56%60%
Dark Moon · 5 mapsnearly even -4%Spirit Academy Green · 1 map
MirageDark Moon ban
50%60%
Dark Moon · 4 mapsedge Spirit Academy Green +10%Spirit Academy Green · 1 map
AncientSpirit Academy Green pick
33%50%
Dark Moon · 2 mapsedge Spirit Academy Green +17%Spirit Academy Green · 0 maps
DefaultSpirit Academy Green ban
50%50%
Dark Moon · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Spirit Academy Green · 0 maps
InfernoSpirit Academy Green ban
50%50%
Dark Moon · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Spirit Academy Green · 0 maps
NukeDark Moon ban
40%50%
Dark Moon · 1 mapedge Spirit Academy Green +10%Spirit Academy Green · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDark Moon remove Nuke
2. BanSpirit Academy Green remove Inferno
3. PickDark Moon take Dust2
4. PickSpirit Academy Green take Ancient
5. BanSpirit Academy Green remove Default
6. BanDark Moon remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct6:13
Dark Moon 43%Spirit Academy Green 57%
The model gave 57% on Spirit Academy Green — the map was taken by Spirit Academy Green.
Anubisprediction correct5:13
Dark Moon 47%Spirit Academy Green 53%
The model gave 53% on Spirit Academy Green — the map was taken by Spirit Academy Green.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpirit Academy Green · 50%
Series resultSpirit Academy Green 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2