NSTLGA League Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
DETONATE#196 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Iowa Stormboar#162 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageIowa Stormboar ban
60%50%
DETONATE · 1 mapedge DETONATE +10%Iowa Stormboar · 4 maps
NukeIowa Stormboar pick
50%50%
DETONATE · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Iowa Stormboar · 2 maps
AncientIowa Stormboar ban
60%50%
DETONATE · 1 mapedge DETONATE +10%Iowa Stormboar · 2 maps
Dust2DETONATE ban
40%50%
DETONATE · 1 mapedge Iowa Stormboar +10%Iowa Stormboar · 2 maps
AnubisDETONATE pick
50%50%
DETONATE · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Iowa Stormboar · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDETONATE remove Dust2
2. BanIowa Stormboar remove Ancient
3. PickDETONATE take Anubis
4. PickIowa Stormboar take Nuke
5. BanIowa Stormboar remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct16:14
DETONATE 57%Iowa Stormboar 43%
The model gave 57% on DETONATE — the map was taken by DETONATE.
Anubisprediction missed9:13
DETONATE 53%Iowa Stormboar 47%
The model gave 53% on DETONATE — the map was taken by Iowa Stormboar.
Nukeprediction missed2:13
DETONATE 50%Iowa Stormboar 50%
The model gave 50% on DETONATE — the map was taken by Iowa Stormboar.
Model check result
Model favoriteDETONATE · 59%
Series resultIowa Stormboar 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3