ESEA Advanced Season 57 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
DONSTU#221 in the world · win 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisDONSTU pick
40%50%
DONSTU · 6 mapsedge COPH9K +10%COPH9K · 0 maps
Dust2COPH9K pick
40%50%
DONSTU · 6 mapsedge COPH9K +10%COPH9K · 0 maps
AncientCOPH9K ban
50%50%
DONSTU · 4 mapsnearly even +0%COPH9K · 0 maps
InfernoDONSTU ban
38%50%
DONSTU · 4 mapsedge COPH9K +12%COPH9K · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDONSTU remove Inferno
2. BanCOPH9K remove Ancient
3. PickDONSTU take Anubis
4. PickCOPH9K take Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:3
DONSTU 35%COPH9K 65%
The model gave 65% on COPH9K — the map was taken by DONSTU.
Anubisprediction missed13:9
DONSTU 43%COPH9K 57%
The model gave 57% on COPH9K — the map was taken by DONSTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteDONSTU · 56%
Series resultDONSTU 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2