Hotspawn Showdown 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
EAC#76 in the world · win 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BASEMENT BOYS#96 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
48%58%
EAC · 21 mapedge BASEMENT BOYS +10%BASEMENT BOYS · 15 maps
AncientEAC pick
57%53%
EAC · 17 mapsnearly even +4%BASEMENT BOYS · 15 maps
NukeBASEMENT BOYS pick
50%60%
EAC · 10 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +10%BASEMENT BOYS · 16 maps
AnubisBASEMENT BOYS ban
50%56%
EAC · 14 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +6%BASEMENT BOYS · 5 maps
CacheEAC ban
57%58%
EAC · 10 mapsnearly even -1%BASEMENT BOYS · 8 maps
Dust2EAC ban
50%53%
EAC · 0 mapsnearly even -3%BASEMENT BOYS · 13 maps
InfernoBASEMENT BOYS ban
38%40%
EAC · 9 mapsnearly even -2%BASEMENT BOYS · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEAC remove Dust2
2. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Inferno
3. PickEAC take Ancient
4. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Nuke
5. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Anubis
6. BanEAC remove Cache
DeciderMirage (48% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
EAC 58%BASEMENT BOYS 42%
The model gave 58% on EAC — the map was taken by EAC.
Cacheprediction missed13:4
EAC 46%BASEMENT BOYS 54%
The model gave 54% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by EAC.
Model check result
Model favoriteEAC · 70%
Series resultEAC 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2