FRAG University 2026 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Marsborne#82 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
43%57%
Elusive · 3 mapsedge Marsborne +14%Marsborne · 17 maps
InfernoMarsborne pick
50%68%
Elusive · 2 mapsedge Marsborne +18%Marsborne · 18 maps
Dust2Marsborne ban
50%60%
Elusive · 0 mapsedge Marsborne +10%Marsborne · 11 maps
MirageMarsborne ban
60%71%
Elusive · 1 mapedge Marsborne +11%Marsborne · 10 maps
NukeElusive pick
50%50%
Elusive · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Marsborne · 8 maps
AnubisElusive ban
40%67%
Elusive · 1 mapedge Marsborne +27%Marsborne · 8 maps
DefaultElusive ban
40%67%
Elusive · 1 mapedge Marsborne +27%Marsborne · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanElusive remove Anubis
2. BanMarsborne remove Mirage
3. PickElusive take Nuke
4. PickMarsborne take Inferno
5. BanMarsborne remove Dust2
6. BanElusive remove Default
DeciderAncient (43% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct6:13
Elusive 29%Marsborne 71%
The model gave 71% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Ancientprediction correct3:13
Elusive 39%Marsborne 61%
The model gave 61% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsborne · 80%
Series resultMarsborne 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2