ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Zomblers#197 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoZomblers pick
50%67%
Elusive · 2 mapsedge Zomblers +17%Zomblers · 2 maps
AncientZomblers ban
43%50%
Elusive · 3 mapsedge Zomblers +7%Zomblers · 0 maps
NukeElusive pick
60%50%
Elusive · 1 mapedge Elusive +10%Zomblers · 2 maps
Dust2Elusive ban
50%50%
Elusive · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Zomblers · 2 maps
MirageZomblers ban
60%60%
Elusive · 1 mapnearly even +0%Zomblers · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanElusive remove Dust2
2. BanZomblers remove Ancient
3. PickElusive take Nuke
4. PickZomblers take Inferno
5. BanZomblers remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
Elusive 50%Zomblers 50%
The model gave 50% on Elusive — the map was taken by Zomblers.
Model check result
Model favoriteZomblers · 54%
Series resultZomblers 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1