European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Enjoy#199 in the world · win 2:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Endless Journey#172 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientEnjoy pick
56%57%
Enjoy · 5 mapsnearly even -1%Endless Journey · 3 maps
AnubisEndless Journey ban
63%29%
Enjoy · 4 mapsedge Enjoy +34%Endless Journey · 3 maps
Dust2Endless Journey ban
67%63%
Enjoy · 2 mapsnearly even +4%Endless Journey · 4 maps
MirageEndless Journey pick
67%71%
Enjoy · 2 mapsnearly even -4%Endless Journey · 3 maps
NukeEnjoy ban
60%63%
Enjoy · 1 mapnearly even -3%Endless Journey · 4 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%67%
Enjoy · 1 mapedge Endless Journey +7%Endless Journey · 2 maps
InfernoEnjoy ban
50%43%
Enjoy · 0 mapsedge Enjoy +7%Endless Journey · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEnjoy remove Inferno
2. BanEndless Journey remove Anubis
3. PickEnjoy take Ancient
4. PickEndless Journey take Mirage
5. BanEndless Journey remove Dust2
6. BanEnjoy remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (60% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:9
Enjoy 53%Endless Journey 47%
The model gave 53% on Enjoy — the map was taken by Enjoy.
Dust2prediction missed14:16
Enjoy 52%Endless Journey 48%
The model gave 52% on Enjoy — the map was taken by Endless Journey.
Ancientprediction missed13:6
Enjoy 48%Endless Journey 52%
The model gave 52% on Endless Journey — the map was taken by Enjoy.
Model check result
Model favoriteEnjoy · 55%
Series resultEnjoy 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3