Kibertochka Season 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Spirit Academy#111 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-RUSTEC pick
57%54%
ex-RUSTEC · 26 mapsnearly even +3%Spirit Academy · 9 maps
NukeSpirit Academy pick
43%44%
ex-RUSTEC · 17 mapsnearly even -1%Spirit Academy · 5 maps
Anubispossible decider
61%67%
ex-RUSTEC · 19 mapsedge Spirit Academy +6%Spirit Academy · 2 maps
MirageSpirit Academy ban
57%38%
ex-RUSTEC · 10 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +19%Spirit Academy · 4 maps
Cacheex-RUSTEC ban
38%50%
ex-RUSTEC · 9 mapsedge Spirit Academy +12%Spirit Academy · 2 maps
InfernoSpirit Academy ban
47%50%
ex-RUSTEC · 11 mapsnearly even -3%Spirit Academy · 0 maps
Ancientex-RUSTEC ban
50%82%
ex-RUSTEC · 0 mapsedge Spirit Academy +32%Spirit Academy · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-RUSTEC remove Ancient
2. BanSpirit Academy remove Inferno
3. Pickex-RUSTEC take Dust2
4. PickSpirit Academy take Nuke
5. BanSpirit Academy remove Mirage
6. Banex-RUSTEC remove Cache
DeciderAnubis (61% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:6
ex-RUSTEC 36%Spirit Academy 64%
The model gave 64% on Spirit Academy — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Dust2prediction correct16:13
ex-RUSTEC 56%Spirit Academy 44%
The model gave 56% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpirit Academy · 57%
Series resultex-RUSTEC 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2