NODWIN Clutch Series 9 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Falcons Force#152 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
brazylijski luz#146 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientFalcons Force pick
40%60%
Falcons Force · 6 mapsedge brazylijski luz +20%brazylijski luz · 1 map
Dust2possible decider
33%60%
Falcons Force · 5 mapsedge brazylijski luz +27%brazylijski luz · 1 map
Miragebrazylijski luz ban
50%40%
Falcons Force · 4 mapsedge Falcons Force +10%brazylijski luz · 1 map
Nukebrazylijski luz pick
33%50%
Falcons Force · 2 mapsedge brazylijski luz +17%brazylijski luz · 0 maps
Anubisbrazylijski luz ban
40%50%
Falcons Force · 1 mapedge brazylijski luz +10%brazylijski luz · 0 maps
DefaultFalcons Force ban
50%60%
Falcons Force · 0 mapsedge brazylijski luz +10%brazylijski luz · 1 map
InfernoFalcons Force ban
50%40%
Falcons Force · 0 mapsedge Falcons Force +10%brazylijski luz · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFalcons Force remove Inferno
2. Banbrazylijski luz remove Anubis
3. PickFalcons Force take Ancient
4. Pickbrazylijski luz take Nuke
5. Banbrazylijski luz remove Mirage
6. BanFalcons Force remove Default
DeciderDust2 (33% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct10:13
Falcons Force 31%brazylijski luz 69%
The model gave 69% on brazylijski luz — the map was taken by brazylijski luz.
Mirageprediction correct13:5
Falcons Force 63%brazylijski luz 37%
The model gave 63% on Falcons Force — the map was taken by Falcons Force.
Ancientprediction correct6:13
Falcons Force 31%brazylijski luz 69%
The model gave 69% on brazylijski luz — the map was taken by brazylijski luz.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons Force · 57%
Series resultbrazylijski luz 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3