ESL Challenger League Season 51 North America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
regain#162 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientFarmVille ban
50%63%
FarmVille · 2 mapsedge regain +13%regain · 4 maps
Dust2FarmVille pick
50%60%
FarmVille · 4 mapsedge regain +10%regain · 1 map
Mirageregain ban
57%40%
FarmVille · 3 mapsedge FarmVille +17%regain · 1 map
Infernoregain pick
50%71%
FarmVille · 0 mapsedge regain +21%regain · 3 maps
Defaultregain ban
67%50%
FarmVille · 2 mapsedge FarmVille +17%regain · 0 maps
OverpassFarmVille ban
50%40%
FarmVille · 0 mapsedge FarmVille +10%regain · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFarmVille remove Overpass
2. Banregain remove Default
3. PickFarmVille take Dust2
4. Pickregain take Inferno
5. Banregain remove Mirage
6. BanFarmVille remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:6
FarmVille 26%regain 74%
The model gave 74% on regain — the map was taken by FarmVille.
Ancientprediction correct5:13
FarmVille 40%regain 60%
The model gave 60% on regain — the map was taken by regain.
Dust2prediction correct14:16
FarmVille 40%regain 60%
The model gave 60% on regain — the map was taken by regain.
Model check result
Model favoriteregain · 56%
Series resultregain 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3