Exort Fiesta Series 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Fire Flux#103 in the world · win 2:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Fire Flux pick
50%50%
Fire Flux · 6 mapsnearly even +0%GUESS · 0 maps
AnubisGUESS ban
67%50%
Fire Flux · 5 mapsedge Fire Flux +17%GUESS · 0 maps
MirageFire Flux ban
50%50%
Fire Flux · 4 mapsnearly even +0%GUESS · 0 maps
AncientGUESS ban
57%50%
Fire Flux · 3 mapsedge Fire Flux +7%GUESS · 0 maps
CacheGUESS pick
43%50%
Fire Flux · 3 mapsedge GUESS +7%GUESS · 0 maps
NukeFire Flux ban
67%50%
Fire Flux · 2 mapsedge Fire Flux +17%GUESS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFire Flux remove Nuke
2. BanGUESS remove Anubis
3. PickFire Flux take Dust2
4. PickGUESS take Cache
5. BanGUESS remove Ancient
6. BanFire Flux remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:2
Fire Flux 69%GUESS 31%
The model gave 69% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Infernoprediction correct6:13
Fire Flux 47%GUESS 53%
The model gave 53% on GUESS — the map was taken by GUESS.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
Fire Flux 50%GUESS 50%
The model gave 50% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Model check result
Model favoriteFire Flux · 60%
Series resultFire Flux 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3