Exort Fiesta Series 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Fire Flux#103 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
NEW VISION#204 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Fire Flux pick
54%47%
Fire Flux · 9 mapsedge Fire Flux +7%NEW VISION · 11 maps
AncientNEW VISION pick
57%40%
Fire Flux · 3 mapsedge Fire Flux +17%NEW VISION · 16 maps
Anubispossible decider
70%36%
Fire Flux · 6 mapsedge Fire Flux +34%NEW VISION · 10 maps
NukeFire Flux ban
71%42%
Fire Flux · 3 mapsedge Fire Flux +29%NEW VISION · 8 maps
MirageFire Flux ban
50%50%
Fire Flux · 4 mapsnearly even +0%NEW VISION · 6 maps
InfernoNEW VISION ban
50%44%
Fire Flux · 2 mapsedge Fire Flux +6%NEW VISION · 5 maps
CacheNEW VISION ban
38%50%
Fire Flux · 4 mapsedge NEW VISION +12%NEW VISION · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFire Flux remove Nuke
2. BanNEW VISION remove Cache
3. PickFire Flux take Dust2
4. PickNEW VISION take Ancient
5. BanNEW VISION remove Inferno
6. BanFire Flux remove Mirage
DeciderAnubis (70% / 36%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed7:13
Fire Flux 83%NEW VISION 17%
The model gave 83% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by NEW VISION.
Nukeprediction missed5:13
Fire Flux 76%NEW VISION 24%
The model gave 76% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by NEW VISION.
Model check result
Model favoriteFire Flux · 61%
Series resultNEW VISION 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2