ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fluxo#56 in the world · win 2:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeFluxo pick
62%50%
Fluxo · 17 mapsedge Fluxo +12%PEAK · 0 maps
Dust2possible decider
53%50%
Fluxo · 13 mapsnearly even +3%PEAK · 0 maps
InfernoFluxo ban
46%50%
Fluxo · 9 mapsnearly even -4%PEAK · 0 maps
MiragePEAK ban
67%50%
Fluxo · 8 mapsedge Fluxo +17%PEAK · 0 maps
AnubisPEAK pick
45%50%
Fluxo · 7 mapsedge PEAK +5%PEAK · 0 maps
CachePEAK ban
56%50%
Fluxo · 5 mapsedge Fluxo +6%PEAK · 0 maps
AncientFluxo ban
40%50%
Fluxo · 1 mapedge PEAK +10%PEAK · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFluxo remove Ancient
2. BanPEAK remove Mirage
3. PickFluxo take Nuke
4. PickPEAK take Anubis
5. BanPEAK remove Cache
6. BanFluxo remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (53% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:10
Fluxo 43%PEAK 57%
The model gave 57% on PEAK — the map was taken by Fluxo.
Nukeprediction correct13:2
Fluxo 65%PEAK 35%
The model gave 65% on Fluxo — the map was taken by Fluxo.
Model check result
Model favoriteFluxo · 79%
Series resultFluxo 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2