Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
fnatic#36 in the world · win 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
6666#80 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientfnatic pick
67%44%
fnatic · 11 mapsedge fnatic +23%6666 · 5 maps
Anubis6666 ban
53%40%
fnatic · 15 mapsedge fnatic +13%6666 · 1 map
Dust2fnatic ban
53%50%
fnatic · 13 mapsnearly even +3%6666 · 0 maps
Inferno6666 ban
80%20%
fnatic · 6 mapsedge fnatic +60%6666 · 6 maps
Mirage6666 pick
69%67%
fnatic · 9 mapsnearly even +2%6666 · 2 maps
Cachepossible decider
70%50%
fnatic · 6 mapsedge fnatic +20%6666 · 0 maps
Nukefnatic ban
50%33%
fnatic · 0 mapsedge fnatic +17%6666 · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banfnatic remove Nuke
2. Ban6666 remove Inferno
3. Pickfnatic take Ancient
4. Pick6666 take Mirage
5. Ban6666 remove Anubis
6. Banfnatic remove Dust2
DeciderCache (70% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:4
fnatic 50%6666 50%
The model gave 50% on 6666 — the map was taken by fnatic.
Anubisprediction correct13:5
fnatic 65%6666 35%
The model gave 65% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Model check result
Model favoritefnatic · 81%
Series resultfnatic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2