Stake Ranked Episode 5 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
fnatic#36 in the world · win 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageJust Players pick
30%55%
fnatic · 6 mapsedge Just Players +25%Just Players · 40 maps
Ancientpossible decider
72%59%
fnatic · 14 mapsedge fnatic +13%Just Players · 28 maps
Dust2Just Players ban
50%39%
fnatic · 8 mapsedge fnatic +11%Just Players · 27 maps
CacheJust Players ban
73%33%
fnatic · 11 mapsedge fnatic +40%Just Players · 11 maps
Anubisfnatic pick
79%50%
fnatic · 10 mapsedge fnatic +29%Just Players · 10 maps
Nukefnatic ban
50%38%
fnatic · 0 mapsedge fnatic +12%Just Players · 20 maps
Defaultfnatic ban
50%67%
fnatic · 0 mapsedge Just Players +17%Just Players · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banfnatic remove Nuke
2. BanJust Players remove Cache
3. Pickfnatic take Anubis
4. PickJust Players take Mirage
5. BanJust Players remove Dust2
6. Banfnatic remove Default
DeciderAncient (72% / 59%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:8
fnatic 24%Just Players 76%
The model gave 76% on Just Players — the map was taken by fnatic.
Cacheprediction correct13:9
fnatic 86%Just Players 14%
The model gave 86% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Model check result
Model favoritefnatic · 71%
Series resultfnatic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2