Stake Pulse Beat II · BO3
result vs prediction
FOKUS#48 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Astralis#15 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAstralis pick
47%63%
FOKUS · 11 mapsedge Astralis +16%Astralis · 12 maps
Nukepossible decider
44%40%
FOKUS · 12 mapsnearly even +4%Astralis · 6 maps
Dust2Astralis ban
43%22%
FOKUS · 10 mapsedge FOKUS +21%Astralis · 5 maps
CacheFOKUS pick
82%60%
FOKUS · 7 mapsedge FOKUS +22%Astralis · 6 maps
InfernoFOKUS ban
38%50%
FOKUS · 4 mapsedge Astralis +12%Astralis · 6 maps
MirageAstralis ban
45%43%
FOKUS · 7 mapsnearly even +2%Astralis · 3 maps
AnubisFOKUS ban
57%40%
FOKUS · 3 mapsedge FOKUS +17%Astralis · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFOKUS remove Anubis
2. BanAstralis remove Dust2
3. PickFOKUS take Cache
4. PickAstralis take Ancient
5. BanAstralis remove Mirage
6. BanFOKUS remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (44% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed11:13
FOKUS 77%Astralis 23%
The model gave 77% on FOKUS — the map was taken by Astralis.
Ancientprediction correct8:13
FOKUS 32%Astralis 68%
The model gave 68% on Astralis — the map was taken by Astralis.
Model check result
Model favoriteAstralis · 83%
Series resultAstralis 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2