NODWIN Clutch Series 12 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Fortress#217 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:2
ENCE#130 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageFortress ban
25%50%
Fortress · 4 mapsedge ENCE +25%ENCE · 12 maps
NukeENCE ban
30%46%
Fortress · 6 mapsedge ENCE +16%ENCE · 9 maps
Cachepossible decider
25%50%
Fortress · 8 mapsedge ENCE +25%ENCE · 6 maps
AnubisFortress ban
44%60%
Fortress · 5 mapsedge ENCE +16%ENCE · 6 maps
InfernoENCE pick
33%70%
Fortress · 5 mapsedge ENCE +37%ENCE · 6 maps
AncientENCE ban
30%25%
Fortress · 6 mapsedge Fortress +5%ENCE · 4 maps
DefaultFortress pick
67%40%
Fortress · 2 mapsedge Fortress +27%ENCE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFortress remove Mirage
2. BanENCE remove Ancient
3. PickFortress take Default
4. PickENCE take Inferno
5. BanENCE remove Nuke
6. BanFortress remove Anubis
DeciderCache (25% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct16:13
Fortress 59%ENCE 41%
The model gave 59% on Fortress — the map was taken by Fortress.
Mirageprediction correct5:13
Fortress 23%ENCE 77%
The model gave 77% on ENCE — the map was taken by ENCE.
Cacheprediction correct14:16
Fortress 25%ENCE 75%
The model gave 75% on ENCE — the map was taken by ENCE.
Model check result
Model favoriteENCE · 62%
Series resultENCE 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3