Roman Imperium Cup IX · BO1
result vs prediction
G2 Ares#130 in the world · win 13:7series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 13:7
Falcons Force#152 in the world · loss 7:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
61%60%
G2 Ares · 29 mapsnearly even +1%Falcons Force · 11 maps
MirageFalcons Force ban
40%50%
G2 Ares · 26 mapsedge Falcons Force +10%Falcons Force · 10 maps
Dust2Falcons Force ban
37%33%
G2 Ares · 23 mapsnearly even +4%Falcons Force · 2 maps
CacheG2 Ares ban
44%71%
G2 Ares · 14 mapsedge Falcons Force +27%Falcons Force · 10 maps
AncientFalcons Force ban
52%57%
G2 Ares · 19 mapsedge Falcons Force +5%Falcons Force · 3 maps
AnubisG2 Ares ban
45%55%
G2 Ares · 7 mapsedge Falcons Force +10%Falcons Force · 7 maps
NukeG2 Ares ban
50%31%
G2 Ares · 0 mapsedge G2 Ares +19%Falcons Force · 9 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanG2 Ares remove Nuke
2. BanFalcons Force remove Dust2
3. BanG2 Ares remove Cache
4. BanFalcons Force remove Ancient
5. BanG2 Ares remove Anubis
6. BanFalcons Force remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (61% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:7
G2 Ares 40%Falcons Force 60%
The model gave 60% on Falcons Force — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons Force · 56%
Series resultG2 Ares 13:7
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1