Roman Imperium Cup IX · BO1
result vs prediction
G2 Ares#130 in the world · loss 7:13series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 7:13
OG#203 in the world · win 13:7The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoOG ban
61%25%
G2 Ares · 29 mapsedge G2 Ares +36%OG · 8 maps
Dust2G2 Ares ban
37%75%
G2 Ares · 23 mapsedge OG +38%OG · 12 maps
MirageG2 Ares ban
42%58%
G2 Ares · 27 mapsedge OG +16%OG · 8 maps
Ancientpossible decider
52%60%
G2 Ares · 21 mapedge OG +8%OG · 6 maps
CacheOG ban
44%33%
G2 Ares · 14 mapsedge G2 Ares +11%OG · 5 maps
NukeG2 Ares ban
50%54%
G2 Ares · 0 mapsnearly even -4%OG · 9 maps
AnubisOG ban
45%50%
G2 Ares · 7 mapsedge OG +5%OG · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanG2 Ares remove Nuke
2. BanOG remove Anubis
3. BanG2 Ares remove Dust2
4. BanOG remove Cache
5. BanG2 Ares remove Mirage
6. BanOG remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (52% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed7:13
G2 Ares 82%OG 18%
The model gave 82% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by OG.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 62%
Series resultOG 7:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1