ESL Challenger League Season 51 South America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Galorys#88 in the world · win 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Keyd Stars#156 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientGalorys ban
60%50%
Galorys · 1 mapedge Galorys +10%Keyd Stars · 0 maps
Dust2Keyd Stars ban
60%50%
Galorys · 1 mapedge Galorys +10%Keyd Stars · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGalorys remove Ancient
2. BanKeyd Stars remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:5
Galorys 47%Keyd Stars 53%
The model gave 53% on Keyd Stars — the map was taken by Galorys.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
Galorys 63%Keyd Stars 37%
The model gave 63% on Galorys — the map was taken by Galorys.
Model check result
Model favoriteGalorys · 58%
Series resultGalorys 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2