ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Galorys#68 in the world · win 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LCLow Cortisol BR#183 in the world · loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientGalorys pick
81%50%
Galorys · 17 mapsedge Galorys +31%Low Cortisol BR · 0 maps
Dust2Low Cortisol BR pick
50%60%
Galorys · 12 mapsedge Low Cortisol BR +10%Low Cortisol BR · 1 map
AnubisLow Cortisol BR ban
46%50%
Galorys · 9 mapsnearly even -4%Low Cortisol BR · 0 maps
Nukepossible decider
64%50%
Galorys · 7 mapsedge Galorys +14%Low Cortisol BR · 0 maps
CacheLow Cortisol BR ban
67%50%
Galorys · 5 mapsedge Galorys +17%Low Cortisol BR · 0 maps
InfernoGalorys ban
38%50%
Galorys · 4 mapsedge Low Cortisol BR +12%Low Cortisol BR · 0 maps
DefaultGalorys ban
60%50%
Galorys · 1 mapedge Galorys +10%Low Cortisol BR · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGalorys remove Inferno
2. BanLow Cortisol BR remove Cache
3. PickGalorys take Ancient
4. PickLow Cortisol BR take Dust2
5. BanLow Cortisol BR remove Anubis
6. BanGalorys remove Default
DeciderNuke (64% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:8
Galorys 37%Low Cortisol BR 63%
The model gave 63% on Low Cortisol BR — the map was taken by Galorys.
Ancientprediction correct13:7
Galorys 83%Low Cortisol BR 17%
The model gave 83% on Galorys — the map was taken by Galorys.
Model check result
Model favoriteGalorys · 63%
Series resultGalorys 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2