LeonBet Masters Season 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:1
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeMOUZ NXT pick
33%60%
Giant Pandas · 2 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +27%MOUZ NXT · 21 map
Dust2Giant Pandas pick
43%24%
Giant Pandas · 3 mapsedge Giant Pandas +19%MOUZ NXT · 17 maps
MirageMOUZ NXT ban
60%28%
Giant Pandas · 1 mapedge Giant Pandas +32%MOUZ NXT · 14 maps
CacheGiant Pandas ban
50%50%
Giant Pandas · 0 mapsnearly even +0%MOUZ NXT · 14 maps
AncientGiant Pandas ban
43%67%
Giant Pandas · 3 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +24%MOUZ NXT · 8 maps
AnubisMOUZ NXT ban
40%44%
Giant Pandas · 1 mapnearly even -4%MOUZ NXT · 5 maps
Defaultpossible decider
33%67%
Giant Pandas · 2 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +34%MOUZ NXT · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGiant Pandas remove Cache
2. BanMOUZ NXT remove Mirage
3. PickGiant Pandas take Dust2
4. PickMOUZ NXT take Nuke
5. BanMOUZ NXT remove Anubis
6. BanGiant Pandas remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (33% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct0:1
Giant Pandas 20%MOUZ NXT 80%
The model gave 80% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ NXT · 62%
Series resultMOUZ NXT 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1