Thunderpick World Championship 2026 North America · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Defaultgirl kissers pick
60%60%
girl kissers · 1 mapnearly even +0%Incognito · 1 map
MirageIncognito pick
40%40%
girl kissers · 1 mapnearly even +0%Incognito · 1 map
InfernoIncognito ban
50%40%
girl kissers · 0 mapsedge girl kissers +10%Incognito · 1 map
Nukegirl kissers ban
40%50%
girl kissers · 1 mapedge Incognito +10%Incognito · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Bangirl kissers remove Nuke
2. BanIncognito remove Inferno
3. Pickgirl kissers take Default
4. PickIncognito take Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed5:13
girl kissers 57%Incognito 43%
The model gave 57% on girl kissers — the map was taken by Incognito.
Nukeprediction correct2:13
girl kissers 43%Incognito 57%
The model gave 57% on Incognito — the map was taken by Incognito.
Model check result
Model favoritegirl kissers · 50%
Series resultIncognito 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2