CCT 2026 South America Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Grêmio#201 in the world · win 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Sementes do Mal ban
50%50%
Grêmio · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Sementes do Mal · 0 maps
InfernoGrêmio pick
50%50%
Grêmio · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Sementes do Mal · 0 maps
CacheGrêmio ban
43%50%
Grêmio · 3 mapsedge Sementes do Mal +7%Sementes do Mal · 0 maps
MirageGrêmio ban
29%50%
Grêmio · 3 mapsedge Sementes do Mal +21%Sementes do Mal · 0 maps
Nukepossible decider
43%50%
Grêmio · 3 mapsedge Sementes do Mal +7%Sementes do Mal · 0 maps
AncientSementes do Mal pick
40%50%
Grêmio · 1 mapedge Sementes do Mal +10%Sementes do Mal · 0 maps
DefaultSementes do Mal ban
60%50%
Grêmio · 1 mapedge Grêmio +10%Sementes do Mal · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGrêmio remove Mirage
2. BanSementes do Mal remove Default
3. PickGrêmio take Inferno
4. PickSementes do Mal take Ancient
5. BanSementes do Mal remove Dust2
6. BanGrêmio remove Cache
DeciderNuke (43% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:6
Grêmio 53%Sementes do Mal 47%
The model gave 53% on Grêmio — the map was taken by Grêmio.
Mirageprediction missed13:2
Grêmio 26%Sementes do Mal 74%
The model gave 74% on Sementes do Mal — the map was taken by Grêmio.
Model check result
Model favoriteGrêmio · 51%
Series resultGrêmio 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2