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CCT 2026 South America Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
GUARA#234 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
METANOIA Wolves#210 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2GUARA ban
27%50%
GUARA · 7 mapsedge METANOIA Wolves +23%METANOIA Wolves · 10 maps
Nukepossible decider
25%50%
GUARA · 8 mapsedge METANOIA Wolves +25%METANOIA Wolves · 4 maps
InfernoGUARA ban
22%38%
GUARA · 5 mapsedge METANOIA Wolves +16%METANOIA Wolves · 4 maps
AncientMETANOIA Wolves pick
40%45%
GUARA · 1 mapedge METANOIA Wolves +5%METANOIA Wolves · 7 maps
DefaultGUARA pick
67%56%
GUARA · 2 mapsedge GUARA +11%METANOIA Wolves · 5 maps
MirageMETANOIA Wolves ban
38%29%
GUARA · 4 mapsedge GUARA +9%METANOIA Wolves · 3 maps
AnubisMETANOIA Wolves ban
50%29%
GUARA · 0 mapsedge GUARA +21%METANOIA Wolves · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGUARA remove Dust2
2. BanMETANOIA Wolves remove Mirage
3. PickGUARA take Default
4. PickMETANOIA Wolves take Ancient
5. BanMETANOIA Wolves remove Anubis
6. BanGUARA remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (25% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:6
GUARA 63%METANOIA Wolves 37%
The model gave 63% on GUARA — the map was taken by GUARA.
Ancientprediction correct7:13
GUARA 42%METANOIA Wolves 58%
The model gave 58% on METANOIA Wolves — the map was taken by METANOIA Wolves.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
GUARA 27%METANOIA Wolves 73%
The model gave 73% on METANOIA Wolves — the map was taken by METANOIA Wolves.
Model check result
Model favoriteGUARA · 50%
Series resultMETANOIA Wolves 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3