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ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Haunted House#236 in the world · loss 0:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Just Swing#158 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientHaunted House pick
50%42%
Haunted House · 0 mapsedge Haunted House +8%Just Swing · 8 maps
Dust2Just Swing ban
40%40%
Haunted House · 1 mapnearly even +0%Just Swing · 6 maps
CacheHaunted House ban
50%70%
Haunted House · 0 mapsedge Just Swing +20%Just Swing · 6 maps
InfernoHaunted House ban
50%44%
Haunted House · 0 mapsedge Haunted House +6%Just Swing · 5 maps
NukeJust Swing pick
33%67%
Haunted House · 2 mapsedge Just Swing +34%Just Swing · 2 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%60%
Haunted House · 2 mapsedge Just Swing +10%Just Swing · 1 map
MirageJust Swing ban
50%50%
Haunted House · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Just Swing · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHaunted House remove Cache
2. BanJust Swing remove Mirage
3. PickHaunted House take Ancient
4. PickJust Swing take Nuke
5. BanJust Swing remove Dust2
6. BanHaunted House remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed8:13
Haunted House 53%Just Swing 47%
The model gave 53% on Haunted House — the map was taken by Just Swing.
Cacheprediction correct3:13
Haunted House 28%Just Swing 72%
The model gave 72% on Just Swing — the map was taken by Just Swing.
Model check result
Model favoriteJust Swing · 56%
Series resultJust Swing 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2