Stake Pulse Beat II · BO3
result vs prediction
HEROIC#26 in the world · win 2:1series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Sangal#48 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HEROIC pick
68%29%
HEROIC · 15 mapsedge HEROIC +39%Sangal · 3 maps
AncientSangal ban
61%43%
HEROIC · 14 mapsedge HEROIC +18%Sangal · 3 maps
CacheHEROIC ban
50%67%
HEROIC · 10 mapsedge Sangal +17%Sangal · 5 maps
Miragepossible decider
67%50%
HEROIC · 11 mapsedge HEROIC +17%Sangal · 4 maps
NukeSangal pick
64%67%
HEROIC · 10 mapsnearly even -3%Sangal · 5 maps
InfernoSangal ban
71%50%
HEROIC · 13 mapsedge HEROIC +21%Sangal · 0 maps
AnubisHEROIC ban
50%57%
HEROIC · 0 mapsedge Sangal +7%Sangal · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHEROIC remove Anubis
2. BanSangal remove Inferno
3. PickHEROIC take Dust2
4. PickSangal take Nuke
5. BanSangal remove Ancient
6. BanHEROIC remove Cache
DeciderMirage (67% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:1
HEROIC 31%Sangal 69%
The model gave 69% on Sangal — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
HEROIC 86%Sangal 14%
The model gave 86% on HEROIC — the map was taken by Sangal.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
HEROIC 67%Sangal 33%
The model gave 67% on HEROIC — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Model check result
Model favoriteHEROIC · 70%
Series resultHEROIC 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3