NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
Honvéd#144 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Inner Circle Academy#80 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Inner Circle Academy pick
56%57%
Honvéd · 30 mapsnearly even -1%Inner Circle Academy · 19 maps
MirageHonvéd pick
53%57%
Honvéd · 26 mapsnearly even -4%Inner Circle Academy · 10 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%42%
Honvéd · 14 mapsedge Honvéd +8%Inner Circle Academy · 15 maps
AnubisHonvéd ban
44%60%
Honvéd · 5 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +16%Inner Circle Academy · 16 maps
NukeInner Circle Academy ban
56%36%
Honvéd · 5 mapsedge Honvéd +20%Inner Circle Academy · 10 maps
InfernoInner Circle Academy ban
33%50%
Honvéd · 8 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +17%Inner Circle Academy · 2 maps
CacheHonvéd ban
50%57%
Honvéd · 6 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +7%Inner Circle Academy · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHonvéd remove Anubis
2. BanInner Circle Academy remove Inferno
3. PickHonvéd take Mirage
4. PickInner Circle Academy take Dust2
5. BanInner Circle Academy remove Nuke
6. BanHonvéd remove Cache
DeciderAncient (50% / 42%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed7:13
Honvéd 55%Inner Circle Academy 45%
The model gave 55% on Honvéd — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Cacheprediction correct11:13
Honvéd 46%Inner Circle Academy 54%
The model gave 54% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle Academy · 57%
Series resultInner Circle Academy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2