GLuck Moscow Cyber Games 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#41 in the world · win 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
64%67%
HOTU · 18 mapsnearly even -3%Black Phoenix · 17 maps
MirageHOTU ban
55%41%
HOTU · 7 mapsedge HOTU +14%Black Phoenix · 13 maps
NukeHOTU pick
77%47%
HOTU · 9 mapsedge HOTU +30%Black Phoenix · 11 maps
Cachepossible decider
53%64%
HOTU · 11 mapsedge Black Phoenix +11%Black Phoenix · 7 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
67%20%
HOTU · 8 mapsedge HOTU +47%Black Phoenix · 6 maps
AncientBlack Phoenix ban
67%50%
HOTU · 11 mapsedge HOTU +17%Black Phoenix · 0 maps
InfernoHOTU ban
50%58%
HOTU · 0 mapsedge Black Phoenix +8%Black Phoenix · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Inferno
2. BanBlack Phoenix remove Ancient
3. PickHOTU take Nuke
4. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
5. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
6. BanHOTU remove Mirage
DeciderCache (53% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
HOTU 44%Black Phoenix 56%
The model gave 56% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by HOTU.
Anubisprediction correct13:9
HOTU 90%Black Phoenix 10%
The model gave 90% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 74%
Series resultHOTU 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2