WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#41 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
65%62%
HOTU · 19 mapsnearly even +3%Black Phoenix · 51 map
CacheHOTU pick
62%50%
HOTU · 22 mapsedge HOTU +12%Black Phoenix · 18 maps
MirageHOTU ban
63%45%
HOTU · 12 mapsedge HOTU +18%Black Phoenix · 25 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
72%26%
HOTU · 14 mapsedge HOTU +46%Black Phoenix · 19 maps
Nukepossible decider
60%50%
HOTU · 11 mapsedge HOTU +10%Black Phoenix · 22 maps
InfernoHOTU ban
40%64%
HOTU · 1 mapedge Black Phoenix +24%Black Phoenix · 18 maps
AncientBlack Phoenix ban
61%33%
HOTU · 14 mapsedge HOTU +28%Black Phoenix · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Inferno
2. BanBlack Phoenix remove Ancient
3. PickHOTU take Cache
4. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
5. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
6. BanHOTU remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
HOTU 51%Black Phoenix 49%
The model gave 51% on HOTU — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Anubisprediction missed9:13
HOTU 89%Black Phoenix 11%
The model gave 89% on HOTU — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 75%
Series resultBlack Phoenix 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2