GLuck Moscow Cyber Games 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#41 in the world · win 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
K27#44 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HOTU pick
65%67%
HOTU · 19 mapsnearly even -2%K27 · 8 maps
AncientK27 pick
67%69%
HOTU · 11 mapsnearly even -2%K27 · 12 maps
MirageHOTU ban
55%65%
HOTU · 7 mapsedge K27 +10%K27 · 16 maps
NukeK27 ban
77%28%
HOTU · 9 mapsedge HOTU +49%K27 · 14 maps
Cachepossible decider
53%70%
HOTU · 11 mapsedge K27 +17%K27 · 6 maps
AnubisK27 ban
69%50%
HOTU · 9 mapsedge HOTU +19%K27 · 6 maps
OverpassHOTU ban
29%57%
HOTU · 3 mapsedge K27 +28%K27 · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Mirage
2. BanK27 remove Nuke
3. PickHOTU take Dust2
4. PickK27 take Ancient
5. BanK27 remove Anubis
6. BanHOTU remove Overpass
DeciderCache (53% / 70%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
HOTU 51%K27 49%
The model gave 51% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Cacheprediction missed13:6
HOTU 30%K27 70%
The model gave 70% on K27 — the map was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 55%
Series resultHOTU 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2