Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#27 in the world · win 2:1series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemesis#43 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Nemesis ban
67%69%
HOTU · 20 mapsnearly even -2%Nemesis · 12 maps
Ancientpossible decider
59%55%
HOTU · 13 mapsnearly even +4%Nemesis · 16 maps
CacheHOTU pick
63%50%
HOTU · 20 mapsedge HOTU +13%Nemesis · 4 maps
MirageHOTU ban
60%57%
HOTU · 11 mapsnearly even +3%Nemesis · 10 maps
NukeNemesis pick
64%67%
HOTU · 10 mapsnearly even -3%Nemesis · 8 maps
AnubisNemesis ban
73%50%
HOTU · 11 mapsedge HOTU +23%Nemesis · 0 maps
InfernoHOTU ban
40%46%
HOTU · 1 mapedge Nemesis +6%Nemesis · 9 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Inferno
2. BanNemesis remove Anubis
3. PickHOTU take Cache
4. PickNemesis take Nuke
5. BanNemesis remove Dust2
6. BanHOTU remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (59% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed2:13
HOTU 65%Nemesis 35%
The model gave 65% on HOTU — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Nukeprediction missed13:8
HOTU 44%Nemesis 56%
The model gave 56% on Nemesis — the map was taken by HOTU.
Ancientprediction correct13:3
HOTU 54%Nemesis 46%
The model gave 54% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 69%
Series resultHOTU 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3