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Stake Ranked Episode 4 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Iberian Soul#52 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemiga#46 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
33%31%
Iberian Soul · 5 mapsnearly even +2%Nemiga · 9 maps
Dust2Iberian Soul ban
50%43%
Iberian Soul · 0 mapsedge Iberian Soul +7%Nemiga · 10 maps
AnubisNemiga pick
60%67%
Iberian Soul · 1 mapedge Nemiga +7%Nemiga · 5 maps
MirageNemiga ban
57%57%
Iberian Soul · 3 mapsnearly even +0%Nemiga · 3 maps
NukeIberian Soul pick
50%56%
Iberian Soul · 0 mapsedge Nemiga +6%Nemiga · 5 maps
CacheIberian Soul ban
33%50%
Iberian Soul · 2 mapsedge Nemiga +17%Nemiga · 2 maps
InfernoNemiga ban
71%50%
Iberian Soul · 3 mapsedge Iberian Soul +21%Nemiga · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIberian Soul remove Dust2
2. BanNemiga remove Inferno
3. PickIberian Soul take Nuke
4. PickNemiga take Anubis
5. BanNemiga remove Mirage
6. BanIberian Soul remove Cache
DeciderAncient (33% / 31%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:10
Iberian Soul 50%Nemiga 50%
The model gave 50% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Iberian Soul.
Nukeprediction correct12:16
Iberian Soul 47%Nemiga 53%
The model gave 53% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Mirageprediction missed8:13
Iberian Soul 50%Nemiga 50%
The model gave 50% on Iberian Soul — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Model check result
Model favoriteIberian Soul · 57%
Series resultNemiga 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3