CCT 2026 Europe Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
illwillloss 1:2series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 1:2
G2 Ares#103 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
38%57%
illwill · 4 mapsedge G2 Ares +19%G2 Ares · 10 maps
AncientG2 Ares ban
43%55%
illwill · 3 mapsedge G2 Ares +12%G2 Ares · 7 maps
Dust2illwill pick
57%55%
illwill · 3 mapsnearly even +2%G2 Ares · 7 maps
Infernoillwill ban
50%62%
illwill · 0 mapsedge G2 Ares +12%G2 Ares · 9 maps
OverpassG2 Ares pick
60%55%
illwill · 1 mapedge illwill +5%G2 Ares · 7 maps
Anubisillwill ban
40%67%
illwill · 1 mapedge G2 Ares +27%G2 Ares · 2 maps
NukeG2 Ares ban
33%50%
illwill · 2 mapsedge G2 Ares +17%G2 Ares · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banillwill remove Inferno
2. BanG2 Ares remove Nuke
3. Pickillwill take Dust2
4. PickG2 Ares take Overpass
5. BanG2 Ares remove Ancient
6. Banillwill remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (38% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed16:19
illwill 56%G2 Ares 44%
The model gave 56% on illwill — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Overpassprediction correct13:4
illwill 53%G2 Ares 47%
The model gave 53% on illwill — the map was taken by illwill.
Mirageprediction correct4:13
illwill 31%G2 Ares 69%
The model gave 69% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 Ares · 73%
Series resultG2 Ares 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3