ESL Challenger League Season 51 South America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Imperial#61 in the world · win 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Galorys#88 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Imperial ban
63%60%
Imperial · 4 mapsnearly even +3%Galorys · 1 map
AnubisGalorys ban
57%50%
Imperial · 3 mapsedge Imperial +7%Galorys · 0 maps
MirageImperial pick
67%60%
Imperial · 2 mapsedge Imperial +7%Galorys · 1 map
AncientImperial ban
50%67%
Imperial · 0 mapsedge Galorys +17%Galorys · 2 maps
InfernoGalorys ban
67%50%
Imperial · 2 mapsedge Imperial +17%Galorys · 0 maps
NukeGalorys pick
40%50%
Imperial · 1 mapedge Galorys +10%Galorys · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanImperial remove Ancient
2. BanGalorys remove Inferno
3. PickImperial take Mirage
4. PickGalorys take Nuke
5. BanGalorys remove Anubis
6. BanImperial remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction missed13:2
Imperial 47%Galorys 53%
The model gave 53% on Galorys — the map was taken by Imperial.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
Imperial 56%Galorys 44%
The model gave 56% on Imperial — the map was taken by Imperial.
Model check result
Model favoriteImperial · 56%
Series resultImperial 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2