FOX Legacy Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
INFINITE#71 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SAW#61 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoSAW pick
42%79%
INFINITE · 8 mapsedge SAW +37%SAW · 10 maps
Dust2SAW ban
29%38%
INFINITE · 13 mapsedge SAW +9%SAW · 4 maps
MirageSAW ban
52%50%
INFINITE · 17 mapsnearly even +2%SAW · 0 maps
AncientINFINITE pick
50%50%
INFINITE · 10 mapsnearly even +0%SAW · 6 maps
CacheINFINITE ban
56%69%
INFINITE · 5 mapsedge SAW +13%SAW · 9 maps
Nukepossible decider
45%67%
INFINITE · 7 mapsedge SAW +22%SAW · 5 maps
AnubisINFINITE ban
40%55%
INFINITE · 1 mapedge SAW +15%SAW · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanINFINITE remove Anubis
2. BanSAW remove Mirage
3. PickINFINITE take Ancient
4. PickSAW take Inferno
5. BanSAW remove Dust2
6. BanINFINITE remove Cache
DeciderNuke (45% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct9:13
INFINITE 27%SAW 73%
The model gave 73% on SAW — the map was taken by SAW.
Ancientprediction missed13:16
INFINITE 53%SAW 47%
The model gave 53% on INFINITE — the map was taken by SAW.
Model check result
Model favoriteSAW · 54%
Series resultSAW 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2