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Urban Riga Open Season 7 · BO1
result vs prediction
Inner Circle Academy#80 in the world · win 31:29
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 31:29
INFURITY#115 in the world · loss 29:31
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2INFURITY ban
61%50%
Inner Circle Academy · 29 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +11%INFURITY · 0 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%71%
Inner Circle Academy · 24 mapsedge INFURITY +21%INFURITY · 3 maps
AnubisINFURITY ban
61%43%
Inner Circle Academy · 24 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +18%INFURITY · 3 maps
NukeInner Circle Academy ban
50%43%
Inner Circle Academy · 18 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +7%INFURITY · 3 maps
MirageINFURITY ban
53%50%
Inner Circle Academy · 15 mapsnearly even +3%INFURITY · 0 maps
CacheInner Circle Academy ban
46%40%
Inner Circle Academy · 9 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +6%INFURITY · 1 map
InfernoInner Circle Academy ban
43%57%
Inner Circle Academy · 3 mapsedge INFURITY +14%INFURITY · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanInner Circle Academy remove Inferno
2. BanINFURITY remove Mirage
3. BanInner Circle Academy remove Cache
4. BanINFURITY remove Dust2
5. BanInner Circle Academy remove Nuke
6. BanINFURITY remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (50% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct31:29
Inner Circle Academy 61%INFURITY 39%
The model gave 61% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle Academy · 63%
Series resultInner Circle Academy 31:29
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1