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ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circle Academy#103 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
WBT#66 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2WBT pick
57%53%
Inner Circle Academy · 24 mapsnearly even +4%WBT · 11 maps
AnubisInner Circle Academy pick
59%56%
Inner Circle Academy · 18 mapsnearly even +3%WBT · 14 maps
Ancientpossible decider
52%57%
Inner Circle Academy · 19 mapsedge WBT +5%WBT · 10 maps
MirageWBT ban
50%43%
Inner Circle Academy · 12 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +7%WBT · 10 maps
NukeInner Circle Academy ban
44%64%
Inner Circle Academy · 12 mapsedge WBT +20%WBT · 7 maps
CacheWBT ban
56%38%
Inner Circle Academy · 5 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +18%WBT · 4 maps
DefaultInner Circle Academy ban
50%60%
Inner Circle Academy · 4 mapsedge WBT +10%WBT · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanInner Circle Academy remove Nuke
2. BanWBT remove Cache
3. PickInner Circle Academy take Anubis
4. PickWBT take Dust2
5. BanWBT remove Mirage
6. BanInner Circle Academy remove Default
DeciderAncient (52% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct6:13
Inner Circle Academy 48%WBT 52%
The model gave 52% on WBT — the map was taken by WBT.
Dust2prediction correct13:2
Inner Circle Academy 51%WBT 49%
The model gave 51% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Nukeprediction missed13:8
Inner Circle Academy 31%WBT 69%
The model gave 69% on WBT — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle Academy · 51%
Series resultInner Circle Academy 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3