NSTLGA League Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Iowa Stormboar#162 in the world · win 2:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Club 333#229 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Iowa Stormboar pick
60%43%
Iowa Stormboar · 1 mapedge Iowa Stormboar +17%Club 333 · 3 maps
MirageClub 333 pick
33%60%
Iowa Stormboar · 2 mapsedge Club 333 +27%Club 333 · 1 map
NukeClub 333 ban
40%40%
Iowa Stormboar · 1 mapnearly even +0%Club 333 · 1 map
AncientClub 333 ban
40%50%
Iowa Stormboar · 1 mapedge Club 333 +10%Club 333 · 0 maps
InfernoIowa Stormboar ban
50%40%
Iowa Stormboar · 0 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +10%Club 333 · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIowa Stormboar remove Inferno
2. BanClub 333 remove Ancient
3. PickIowa Stormboar take Dust2
4. PickClub 333 take Mirage
5. BanClub 333 remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:6
Iowa Stormboar 53%Club 333 47%
The model gave 53% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by Iowa Stormboar.
Mirageprediction missed13:8
Iowa Stormboar 23%Club 333 77%
The model gave 77% on Club 333 — the map was taken by Iowa Stormboar.
Model check result
Model favoriteClub 333 · 56%
Series resultIowa Stormboar 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2