StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 North America Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Iowa Stormboar#162 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LAG#91 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLAG ban
40%50%
Iowa Stormboar · 6 mapsedge LAG +10%LAG · 4 maps
NukeLAG pick
56%63%
Iowa Stormboar · 5 mapsedge LAG +7%LAG · 4 maps
Ancientpossible decider
57%29%
Iowa Stormboar · 3 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +28%LAG · 3 maps
InfernoIowa Stormboar ban
40%44%
Iowa Stormboar · 1 mapnearly even -4%LAG · 5 maps
Dust2Iowa Stormboar ban
43%67%
Iowa Stormboar · 3 mapsedge LAG +24%LAG · 2 maps
AnubisLAG ban
50%40%
Iowa Stormboar · 2 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +10%LAG · 1 map
DefaultIowa Stormboar pick
50%40%
Iowa Stormboar · 0 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +10%LAG · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIowa Stormboar remove Inferno
2. BanLAG remove Anubis
3. PickIowa Stormboar take Default
4. PickLAG take Nuke
5. BanLAG remove Mirage
6. BanIowa Stormboar remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (57% / 29%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct4:13
Iowa Stormboar 46%LAG 54%
The model gave 54% on LAG — the map was taken by LAG.
Infernoprediction correct5:13
Iowa Stormboar 42%LAG 58%
The model gave 58% on LAG — the map was taken by LAG.
Model check result
Model favoriteLAG · 52%
Series resultLAG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2